Ep 64: Will The Russia & Ukraine Conflict Crash The Market?
The X's & O's
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has invoked fear in investors because some believe that this event will cause a crash in the American stock market. Is there truth to this sentiment? Or will the market gloss over this news item in a couple weeks? Brent, Matthew, and Joshua will take a look at how the stock market has performed in previous wartimes and draw some conclusions based on the historical data.
The Hosts:
Brent Pasqua, Matthew Theal and Joshua Winterswyk
Transcript
Brent Pasqua: All right, here we go. Welcome in. Welcome to Retirement Plan Playbook. We’re happy to be back here with you. Today we’re going to be talking about the impact of the Russia-Ukraine border war. And we know that confrontation is creating a lot of volatility and speculation in our markets. We wanted to discuss it today, and let you know where our thoughts are and where we stand with the situation and how we think you may want to approach the markets as this proceeds through. I’m your host Brent Pasqua, founder of RPA Wealth Management and I’m here with Matthew Theal certified financial planner, Joshua Winterswyk certified financial planner. Did you guys watch the Olympics?
Matthew Theal: Hey Brent, great to see you. No, I didn’t watch too much in the Olympics, I watched a little ice hockey. To be honest, I was a little busy watching the Rams win the Super Bowl so I was really happy, I know we talked about in the last episode, I’m just happy to be a Super Bowl champion today.
Brent Pasqua: Wait, isn’t the Olympics like three weeks long and you’re talking about one day for the Super Bowl?
Matthew Theal: I am, but I just want to really throw in that the Rams won.
Josh Winterswyk: I’m glad you finally picked a winner. The Olympics, Brent, yes, I did watch some. I only really watched my favorite events though, didn’t really pay attention to everything else. Kind of not my thing this year. I don’t think we really finished that high up in the medal count, right?
Brent Pasqua: I don’t think so either. That’s how much I really didn’t watch. I think I watched Nathan Chen. He was a big story for the U.S and the figure skating. Sean White’s last snowboarding. But outside of that, I really didn’t watch too, too much of it.
Matthew Theal: We took third, I think in the medal count.
Brent Pasqua: That’s not bad.
Josh Winterswyk: The time that I checked. I thought we were further behind.
Matthew Theal: I think it was the lowest red Olympics in history. So you guys weren’t alone. If you didn’t watch it that much is
Josh Winterswyk: Is that because like every time I watched a winter sport, there, there was no snow, it looked like it was in the middle of summer?
Brent Pasqua: Probably.
Matthew Theal: Yeah, that’s probably why.
Brent Pasqua: Okay, moving on. So we got some hot take headlines for you today. There was a Bitcoin take down in 2016, somebody stole 119,754 Bitcoin from a Bitcoin exchange called Bitfinex. Did I say that right?
Matthew Theal: Yes, you did. And that’s a lot of bits in one sentence.
Brent Pasqua: Today, the Bitcoins is worth $4.5 billion. Law enforcement officers arrested Heather Morgan, 31 and Ilya Lichtenstein, 34 years old for trying to move the money on the crypto exchange. US government was able to get back and seize 3.6 billion in Bitcoin. This is pretty much like the largest I think financial scam ever. Seems like they did some pretty good damage in a period of time. What’s your take?
Matthew Theal: This is an interesting one for a couple of reasons. So Bitcoins, it was only worth like 70 million, I think when the Bitcoin was originally stolen. But since Bitcoin’s gone up so much in that time period now it’s worth over a billion like you were saying. But what happened to Bitcoin being untraceable, right? I thought you use Bitcoin and it’s untraceable, and they can’t get you. But it actually, the opposite is true. And Bitcoin is very traceable if the regulators know how to use it and have the proper tools. And they’ve spent the last five to seven years developing those tools and they used it here and they were able to take down some bad guys, which is pretty cool.
Brent Pasqua: Were they searching this whole time for these people to try to hunt this down? Or was this kind of like a more known occurrence more recently?
Josh Winterswyk: Yeah, they were actually continuously trying to track these people down, but it didn’t become until more recently that they did have more added tools. The tools were evolving in that same timeframe as Bitcoin was evolving to try to catch people who are trying to steal and transfer money launder Bitcoin. I’d just like to say that the female in this story, the crocodile of Wall Street, did I say that right, Matt?
Matthew Theal: Yep, Razzlekhan.
Josh Winterswyk: Yeah. Racon, she’s also a rapper. The story gets even more interesting. And I think it’s pretty interesting, also part of the story is that cryptocurrency can be used in a lot of, kind of dark web criminal activity, but also that our government is also evolving and making sure that we have tools to prevent that as well. So I thought that was an interesting part of the story.
Brent Pasqua: If you have a good few minutes, I’d go search her rap video if you want a good laugh.
Josh Winterswyk: Yeah. It is pretty funny.
Matthew Theal: Google Heather Morgan, because she was an absolute character, and there’s all lot of just really funny stuff on the internet about her. And then once you do the research about her, most likely wasn’t these two who stole the Bitcoin is what they’re saying. They were most likely trying to help whoever stole the Bitcoin launder the Bitcoin so, yes.
Josh Winterswyk: And it was a Walmart $500 gift card that eventually got them all caught.
Matthew Theal: Yeah. That tipped them off.
Josh Winterswyk: It’s kind of funny.
Matthew Theal: Yeah.
Brent Pasqua: So what happened to the almost $1 billion that’s still missing? That’s what I want know.
Matthew Theal: I don’t know. I mean, it could be with the original thieves, it could be on another Bitcoin wallet because the way they got it was all this Bitcoin was I believe on one wallet drive. So that’s how they found it. So most likely it’s with the original thieves somewhere else overseas. What I don’t understand about the whole scenario, I haven’t heard a lot of people talk about is why are these two people in the US?
Brent Pasqua: Right, because if you did all that, you should probably not be here.
Matthew Theal: Yeah. You should probably be in a country where they’re really not going to care that you stole this many Bitcoin.
Josh Winterswyk: And I believe they were at some point, right?
Matthew Theal: Yeah. They traveled back and forth a lot.
Josh Winterswyk: Yeah. But yeah, you would make a good point. Why would you stick around here?
Brent Pasqua: So they did utilize and spend some of that money.
Matthew Theal: Somebody did. I don’t know if it was them, yeah. We can’t speculate if it was them or not. I don’t think we know.
Josh Winterswyk: And eventually laundering it to spend it got them caught.
Matthew Theal: Cool thing though, final top point on this is there’s a Netflix special coming out. I guess it’s already in works, and they’re working on the script. So hopefully we’ll get something good in about a year and a half on this.
Josh Winterswyk: As I was reading these author about these, this couple, I was thinking, man, this is going to be a great, great movie or docuseries. So I’m really, really looking forward to that. Matt, glad to hear that.
Brent Pasqua: All right. So Canada froze bank accounts of people at the trucker protest, Canada prime minister, Justin Trudeau used emergency orders to freeze accounts of people who are taking part or even contributing to the trucker protest. Matt, I know you’ve been fired up for two weeks about this issue. We’ve been listening to you all around the office to talk about Canada and what’s going on there? What’s your take about this?
Matthew Theal: Yeah, I mean, this is unprecedented in a democracy, extremely, extremely scary. I mean, you’re looking at people who have an opposing view to the Prime Minister of Canada and he enacts an emergency power to freeze their assets. So they no longer have access to their money. They can’t pay their rent. They can’t pay their mortgage. They can’t pay their utility bill. All their money has just been completely wiped all because they have an opposing view on COVID. It’s probably one of the scariest things we’ve dealt with in this 21st century, in my opinion.
Josh Winterswyk: The more I read this story, the more, it became a little scary, like you’re saying, I mean, it’s just the use of the emergency power. Even for people that were donating a small amount of money to have their assets froze. I mean, in a country that’s technically free, I mean, it is pretty scary. And I thought the same thing. It took me a little while, because Matt will was really pumping this story up here in the office over the last two weeks. But I would have to agree with you Matt, at this point.
Brent Pasqua: As far as I can remember, this is one of the first conflicts I’ve ever heard that has happened in Canada.
Josh Winterswyk: Usually much doesn’t happen from what we hear about over there.
Brent Pasqua: Yeah, you’re right.
Matthew Theal: Yeah. No, Canadians are supposedly really nice. And they just went out to protest some overbearing COVID mandates, which I think has been kind of on par with the rest of the world, protesting COVID mandates. And Trudeau his government didn’t like it. So they pulled out all the tricks in the playbook to stop them and finally it led to freezing of assets.
Brent Pasqua: And as UK has now completely changed their restrictions. Basically it’s saying, we’re learning to live with COVID and we’re not going to have any more restrictions. It seems like Canada’s still working in the opposite direction to clamp down.
Matthew Theal: Yeah. That’s this kind of leftist liberal wing of the party, they really like the authoritarian regimes.
Brent Pasqua: Hopefully the problem resolve here pretty soon because it’s probably not good to carry on this long.
Josh Winterswyk: No, and it’s just such a slippery slope, right. This can get really bad, really fast. And we’re already seeing it just in the few weeks of news that we’ve been reading on it. So hopefully calmer minds prevail.
Brent Pasqua: Yeah. I mean, if you’re freezing bank accounts for something like this, I mean, what’s the next thing you’re going to be freezing people’s bank accounts over, right? Exactly. That’s a slippery slope idea and it’s just, it is pretty scary. Yeah. I mean, get your Bitcoins ready. I guess
Matthew Theal: Absolutely.
Brent Pasqua: Many people are concerned, and let’s get in the retirement planning corner, about the tensions along with the border of Russia and Ukraine. We thought really we should spend some time today is just discussing what some of those questions are that we’re getting from other people regarding the issue and what could possibly happen in our markets as this kind of progresses over in time. Have you guys ever seen Russia invade other countries like this before?
Josh Winterswyk: Yes, we have. And it happened in 2008 Russia with Georgia, right, Matt?
Matthew Theal: Yep, 2008. They invaded was a big story in the financial news for all of about four days
Brent Pasqua: And then are stocks right now going up or down because of this war?
Matthew Theal: I think it’s important to understand, like I know like when we’re watching Fox news and CNN and ABC, they talk about these war headlines, and they show then the Dow or S and P down. We’ve talked about this on almost every show this year, the market was probably going to go down regardless if there is a war, not a war. Sure. It it could be driving it down just little bit, but really it’s not the cause of the market dropping. Right. We’ve kind of discussed why the market was prone to drop this year. You know, these two countries trading headlines in the news, along with the us and the west Western NATO allies really isn’t too much cause for concern for the market.
Brent Pasqua: What I thought was interesting is that there was a big lead up to this taking place, right? And then they decided on Monday to invade and then on Tuesday it was anticipated that really the markets were going to get crushed because this was coming to fruition. The markets had been somewhat concerned about this, but then Tuesday came, and it wasn’t really all that bad of what we had seen last week in the previous weeks or even in January this year. Why such a difference and why didn’t that actually fall that first day?
Matthew Theal: That’s a great question. And that’s kind of on par with what we’ve seen previously is maybe there’s a little fall coming up, and then once it’s announced, oh yeah, there we’re going to not even start a war. We’re just going to go occupy this territory where a bunch of Russians live, which is essentially what they announced. Yeah, it doesn’t cause much of a drop. It’s really just the news trying to get viewers sucked in to watch.
Josh Winterswyk: And back in 2008, when we talked about Russia announcing or invading Georgia in a very similar situation, stocks actually ended positive that day. So that news broke, and we had a good day in the market that day. And you’re just seeing even now that drop wasn’t very significant. And I think it’s also taken away some of that uncertainty. There was a lot of lead up to this headline finally breaking, right? Like go had an idea about what was going to eventually go on. Yeah. If I felt like a lot of the decline already had happened leading up to this situation, like it was already anticipated. I mean I could be wrong, but it went down a lot the previous week.
Matthew Theal: Yeah. And like I was saying, I don’t even think that’s related to Russia and Ukraine. I mean, honestly I think the Canadian story is more important than Russia and Ukraine. I think them market was going down because of inflation and interest rates rising. We know that’s the playbook this year, and it’s going to be a choppy year because of those two news items.
Brent Pasqua: How have we seen stocks perform in modern day war times?
Josh Winterswyk: I have a couple just kind of good data points here. So back in 2003, when the US invaded Iraq, stock rose by a little over 2%, the following day. And the year after that, we finished up more than 30% from that point. So this is just one example that war started like in 2003 had positive return in the market. Matt, you want to give another example?
Matthew Theal: Yeah. So in Vietnam in 65, the Dow was up over 10% that year. And that’s pretty common with what we see with war times. Actually the market ends up going up when there’s a war, not down, which is quite interesting.
Josh Winterswyk: But then on also the opposite side, we had the terrace attack on us soil in 2011, and we saw stocks sharply fall. I mean little more than 15%, but we were also in the middle of a recession, and stocks were in a free fall from bursting.com bubble. So maybe not the best comparison, but three different examples, three different outcomes too. There’s nothing kind of directly correlated here.
Matthew Theal: Yeah. And then it’s kind of interesting. So there’s this study that was done by a researcher, and I apologize for whoever did the study because I don’t have his name, but it was done through the time period of 1926 to July of 2013. So there’s quite a few wars in that time period. And he looked at stock market volatility. And what he found was when there’s actually a war going on, the stock is less volatile than it is in non-war times, which is the complete opposite of what you would think. And I think what ends up happening is my guess would be the market just kind of understands, hey, there’s a war going on. We’re just going to start ignoring it. So I would imagine in the next few days, this Russia Ukraine thing starts to get ignored by the market and the news moves on to something else.
Josh Winterswyk: And like you said, there’s just more pressing variables that are a lot more relevant.
Matthew Theal: Yeah, absolutely.
Brent Pasqua: Has the market reacted traditionally as much to wars that have taken place that really had very little to do with us? I know this has to do with us, but we talked a lot about how wars that we’re involved in, but what about wars that don’t have to do much with us?
Matthew Theal: That’s a great, great question. So there’s a bunch of data here. I have lots of different wars that don’t really pertain to us, but on average, the one day drop is around 1%. So that’s pretty much consistent with what we saw today as in being Tuesday, the day we’re recording the 22nd. And the total drawdown is usually around 5%. Right now we’re at 10% drawdown, but this started way before the crisis. We’ve been in a down market pretty much all year. And it usually takes about 22 days to find an actual low point in the market. So yeah, we should be pretty close to a bottom in the next few days.
Brent Pasqua: And then what about the world war III references? What did stocks do in World War II?
Matthew Theal: This is a great question, because this is the news kind of main rallying point, right? Like, oh this is world war III. They’re going to go after Kiev and start blowing it up. And then the US is going to get involved and China’s going to get involved, and everyone’s going to get nuked out. Right. And world war three is here. That’s the extremest example. But interesting enough in World War II, the Dow was up more than 50% from the years of 1939 to 1945, good for a 7% per year average return. So stocks were up every year during World War II.
Brent Pasqua: And how do stocks really perform during other major wars?
Josh Winterswyk: Well, we have also some other good data points here from other major wars. We have Korean War, just from large cap stocks during that time of war were up over 18%. We have Vietnam War up over 6% and the Gulf War up over 11.7% from large cap stocks in the US. So you’re seeing through these war periods, good rates of return and kind of probably contrary to a lot of people’s beliefs, if you’re not looking at the data.
Matthew Theal: Yeah. All wars on average, look at that 11% rate of return. And then if you compare this, like we need a comparison from 1926 to 2013, on average, the stock market returned 10% per year. So wars actually more bullish for stocks than less bullish for stocks, which is very counterintuitive.
Brent Pasqua: So during this time, should people be looking to buy or sell stocks knowing that we’re having this crisis right now?
Matthew Theal: No. I mean, you shouldn’t be looking to sell. I mean, there’s no reason to sell your stocks right now. They’ve already dropped a little bit. I mean, why would you sell something that’s on sale? And to your point, you probably should be looking to start buying. So absolutely.
Josh Winterswyk: And a lot of common stocks are down big. I mean this started last year. I mean, if you’re really looking at your portfolio of common stocks declined. So again, why would you be you selling low on this headline? Why wouldn’t you have already be selling if that was the fear? So, but again, I think it takes it back too, of remembering that you have ownership net stock. You own shares of a company that are still going to produce services and goods. No matter what’s going on with a war in Russia and Ukraine, Apple’s still going to make iPhones and sell them to the American public if you own Apple stock. So I think it’s kind of good to take that back. And even if we did go into a world war II, Apple could probably make some pretty cool military devices to sell, and you still get the upside potential there.
Matthew Theal: Yeah. I mean such a great point. You and I are both in the SUV market right now. We need a new SUV. What Russia and Ukraine are doing on their borders isn’t going to impact us buying that SUV this year.
Josh Winterswyk: No, I found out real fast that my car isn’t ideal for pulling a car seat in and out.
Matthew Theal: What would impact my ability to buy cars if Canada freezes my bank account.
Josh Winterswyk: Yes. You make a really good point there.
Brent Pasqua: Or if you had one of those cars on that ship that was in the middle of the ocean that started on fire and now all those cars have been burned, that might have some impact as well.
Matthew Theal: Yeah. That too.
Brent Pasqua: What’s interesting too I think about this topic is when you start to look at what the media does from an emotional standpoint, as they start to create sort of that uncertainty or concern in your mind about what the future holds when things like this start to take place, it makes you also concerned about either your personal wellbeing or how your finances are going to react in a situation like this. And it’s, I think most important that you go back and look at historical data and what happens during these times, but not only that to get a better perspective on sort of what the situation is and how it really might impact you. But I think part of about that is interesting is it can lead you to so many fears and thoughts and concerns, but in reality, the situation as far as the market goes, is minimally impacted and far less than you think is probably going to be impacting you.
Matthew Theal: Yeah, and we saw this during coronavirus, right? I mean, that was a situation where they shut down the economy, obviously there’s financial impact. But as things got going, I mean the news continued to create hysteria around COVID because that brings in viewers, and that’s what they’re doing right now with Russia and Ukraine. They’re creating hysteria around it because it’s going to bring in viewers.
Josh Winterswyk: Right. And I thought what was different too about COVID, I mean, obviously it’s very different in a lot of ways, but the market was really down for about 30 days, and then it started it to recover very quickly. That was a very serious situation and risk to our economy. This is very minimally at risk, but still you kind of have that hysteria happening again.
Matthew Theal: Yeah, absolutely. I agree that there was more economic risk during COVID than there is right now.
Brent Pasqua: And are you having, or should people have any impact to their financial plans because of this issue?
Josh Winterswyk: I think if you’ve been neglecting your financial plan already up to this point, now’s a good time to get it updated, right. We take that a proactive approach. This headline shouldn’t promote you to be reactive, to making changes, unless something really changed like we’re talking about with your life or your situation. So I think that if this going to be that trigger event for you to just naturally be doing what you should be anyway with your financial plan of updating it and making sure it’s on track and all of the things that we normally talk about, great. But I don’t think that this is something that you need to react to. It is just one variable.
Matthew Theal: Yeah, absolutely. I mean, when we’re looking at financial plan, we’re taking a long term approach. And even if this is a war and they start shooting at each other, which doesn’t sound like they have, or have plans to shoot at each other, it’ll be over by the time where your plan is even like probably started, right. So it really shouldn’t impact what your long term goals are or what you’re doing on a day to day basis.
Brent Pasqua: All right. So I think we make some good points. I think what’s important here is just obviously hold tight. This issue is probably going to be ongoing for a little bit, but we aren’t seeing as much impact in the market. I think obviously there’s a lot of bigger issues in the economy right now than this one that’s some volatility.
Matthew Theal: Yeah. CNN, Fox they’ll move on to a new story in a couple weeks.
Josh Winterswyk: Makes sense.
Brent Pasqua: All right. Let’s get into the RPA recommends. Matt, what do you have for us?
Matthew Theal: All right. So I’m going to kick us off today with a book. I don’t think we’ve done a book on this show yet. Have we? If we have, it was a long time ago.
Josh Winterswyk: Probably a while ago.
Matthew Theal: So yeah, probably cookbook. Huh. So I’ll go with a book called The Power Law by Sebastian Mallaby. And I could be really butchering that last name, but the book’s called The Power Law. It is about the history of venture capitalists in the country. Really, really interesting, timely read right now. The book just came out. So it’s a lot of fresh material. It starts back all the way in the fifties and sixties and kind of the birth of technology. And then just goes through that, and it starts to name all the big players and all the VCs and how they got started and the companies they funded. I’m on the chapter right now where they’re talking about how Apple got funded. Really interesting to hear about it.
Brent Pasqua: What do you have fresh, Josh?
Josh Winterswyk: Did I already recommend this? Did I tell you guys I got a Blackstone?
Brent Pasqua: I think you may have, but tell us more about it.
Josh Winterswyk: Did I mention that already?
Matthew Theal: I mean, you’ve cooked me an amazing burger on that Blackstone.
Josh Winterswyk: Have I give it as a recommendation ye?
Matthew Theal: I don’t know. Well, just recommend it again because you obviously like it.
Josh Winterswyk: Okay. I was drawing a little blank here on the recommends, but that’s been my project recently. Got a Blackstone grill. Shout out, it was a gift, very nice gift from my cousin. And really had been wanting one, it’s like a cast iron flat iron grill. So you can do burgers and a bunch of food on it and stuff like that. I actually had Matt over, and we did some smash burgers on it, but really easy setup, really easy cleanup to kind of just do a full meal on this outdoor flat iron grill. Really like it. They sell them locally. I mean, they’re like at Home Depot and Lowes in a bunch of other places, but I’m going to recommend that because I’ve really enjoyed cooking on my Blackstone grill. So go check them out if you’re looking for a gift for anyone who’s looking for a barbecue or a grill.
Matthew Theal: Yeah. Your smash burgers were next level. And I hear there’s a rumor on the street that you might be doing taco man sometime in the summer of 2022. So I’m looking forward to getting the invite for tacos.
Josh Winterswyk: Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. I’ll have to have an RPA day. I’m perfecting my taco game on that Blackstone. So taco men coming soon.
Brent Pasqua: I know we talked about smash burgers before with mine, us doing smash burgers at the house. I think again, smash burgers are the best way to have a burger if…
Josh Winterswyk: That’s what it was. So wasn’t that I recommended Blackstone. You recommended smash burgers.
Brent Pasqua: Yeah. It’s great. All right. My recommend is actually an app. And maybe if you’ve been listening to the podcast for a while, you’ve heard me talk about a guy named Bobby Parrish, who is about eating healthy and a lot of the healthy eating ingredients.
Josh Winterswyk: FlavCity.
Brent Pasqua: Yeah. So if you are into eating healthier, you want to learn to eat healthier, he has an app called Bobby approved. And what you can do is scan items barcode with the app.
Brent Pasqua: And it will tell you if it’s approved item or not basically meaning whether it’s clean ingredients or if there’s bad ingredients in there like sugar or certain chemicals that you shouldn’t probably be putting into your body that aren’t healthy for your body. But it is a very easy way to look at an app and know what you’re eating is whether or not it’s good clean or whatnot. And one thing that you can do, what I started doing with the app is I downloaded the app, and I started going around my kitchen and finding out what was approved and what’s not approved. And you’d be surprised at some of the things that you find in your house that contains not as good ingredients.
Josh Winterswyk: Was there a lot of stuff in your house that wasn’t approved?
Brent Pasqua: More than I would’ve thought.
Josh Winterswyk: And you eat pretty clean so that’s surprising.
Brent Pasqua: So it was surprising. There was certain things that I thought were clean, but there’s just bad ingredients in them.
Matthew Theal: Did you throw a lot out?
Brent Pasqua: No. No, but it’s good education to know, as you continue to go shopping, you know what you’re not going to and kind of tweaking what you’re buying.
Josh Winterswyk: I said FlavCity, because I think that’s his Instagram handle, right?
Brent Pasqua: Yes. Yeah. And he has a couple cookbooks. We’ve talked about those in the past, but check out the app. It’s good. It’s interesting information finding out what you’re eating is actually truly healthy ingredients.
Josh Winterswyk: I’m kind of scared to use it and look what’s in my pantry.
Brent Pasqua: I know it’s surprising. So as we end today and as advisors, we love helping people. That’s why we do it. You can also download our E-book on our website. The Retirement Plan Playbook gives you financial steps that you should take whether you’re 10 years, five years or one year from retirement. You also get information on how to manage your first year of retirement. And it also involves case studies that can show you exactly how in the steps that we can do to work together. If you’d like to schedule an appointment with any of us, please go to RPA wealth.com and schedule a complimentary consultation. But as always, thanks for listening.
Josh Winterswyk: Thank you.
Matthew Theal: Thank you.
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