The X’s & O’s
This year’s election is only a few months away and many people have strong emotions and opinions going into it. It’s common that we hear one candidate will make the stock market crash, while the other one will be beneficial for the market. Brent, Matthew, and Joshua will dive into some data and take a look at how the stock market has performed under different presidents.
Brent Pasqua, Matthew Theal and Joshua Winterswyk
Brent Pasqua: Welcome to the Retirement Plan Playbook. The group is all here, Josh, Matt, Brent. We have a great show for you today. We have a topic that I think really brings in a lot of opinions, and emotions. But I think what will happen today is we’ll try to bring that all to a head, and support it with some facts. So before I get into that though, what are your guides as most common services, that are being delivered to your house?
Matthew Theal: Hey Brent, great to see you today. So on the delivery side, I’ve been using the Amazon Whole Foods, grocery delivery service. Been getting the groceries delivered to the house. It’s easier than just going to the grocery store. They still have lines where I live, because I live in Los Angeles city. It’s not as opened up as other parts of California. Obviously amazon.com, buy everything off that place. A new package arrives every day with me and my wife. And then for my meats and fish, I use a US Wellness Meats, and this fish place, I believe it’s called Sea to Table.
Brent: You’re still using a lot of delivery services.
Matthew: Yeah, it’s just easier. Oh, and then of course, we’re getting the Grubhub, DoorDash, whatever the restaurant is we want to, they’re all on different platforms. So we’re getting those delivered usually, one meal a weekend. One on Friday night, usually.
Joshua Winterswyk: That’s what we’re still using. Well, we’re still using one of the Grubhub, DoorDash, whatever I’m feeling like, and that’s probably at usually once a week. And then obviously Amazon have been using it, still using it. But not really using the grocery service anymore. Since the grocery stores are not as packed, there’s not really any lines around here. I like getting out of the house, and going grocery shopping, like I was pre COVID. So, not using too many other delivery services, the Amazon Needs and once a week food delivery for dinner, or something like that.
Brent: I enjoy going to the grocery store too. I make my one trip a week to the grocery store, and I get the kids fresh fruit and vegetables, and all this stuff that we need. But some of the things that we use more commonly like Outer Aisle, which are cauliflower flats instead of having bread, or Rao’s spaghetti sauce. Things that I can order directly from those services. Siete products, we’ve been having those delivered. So mine’s more of the products that we use, and we want more of, I just ordered them directly. So when I go to the store, I don’t look like I’m hoarding baskets full of food. Trying to avoid having to stack too much in my basket.
Joshua: I have a question for you. Do most of those direct companies have free shipping? Because that’s one of the benefits of Amazon, or using some of the services where it’s all included. Do they have options for free shipping?
Brent: Yes. There’s two benefits, you get shipping, number one. Number two, one of the other things is its cheaper than some of it is in a store. And then the other thing is that, a lot of it you can use on the Honey App. And the Honey App going to find you the coupons. So then you save even more money off of it.
Joshua: Yeah. There you go. See Matt?
Brent: Saving through Honey doesn’t work for Matthew. It’s worked great with delivering services, and foods directly to your door.
Joshua: I’m glad it’s helping one of you guys.
Matthew: Yes. A couple of weeks later, Honey still hasn’t…
Brent: It’s going to be like a common topic on this podcast now. All right. Well, let’s get into the headlines. Airbnb filed for an IPO, meaning the stock will be publicly traded. You think investors will want to get in on the IPO?
Matthew: Oh yeah, absolutely, I think this is going to be a very popular IPO. I’m sure our phone will be ringing off the hook from either potential clients, or our current clients who want to try and get it in on this. It’s one of those things though, where it’s usually probably not best to buy the day that stock comes out, or even a couple of days after. We’ve seen it with a lot of these big, recent tech IPOs that have been highly anticipated. But the stock actually usually does maybe a one day pop, and then slowly sells off. And there’s a few reasons behind that.
Matthew: The main reason is, all the early investors are actually selling. So what happens when you’re doing an IPO, is the people who invested in the company when it was essentially worthless, are now selling their million dollar positions to you and me. And then the other thing is the employees. Because the employees, they get their stock options, and does best when the companies go public, and so they want to cash out. They want to buy a home, they want to buy a vacation home. They want to pay off their student loans, whatever it is. But they’re going to use that Airbnb money, to accomplish their personal financial, I guess, goals.
Brent: So when does the employees actually get to sell it? Are they doing it before it actually hits the market?
Matthew: Oh, that’s a great question. I’m not sure with regards to this Airbnb IPO. Usually there’re different times they could sell. One thing that’s happened with companies staying private a little longer is, there are services where employees can get what they call liquidity. Which would be selling some of their shares, before the stock goes public. And as for the other part, is there usually is some lock up period. Usually one to two weeks after the company goes public, then they’re allowed to sell. Which is another reason probably why, the stock price probably isn’t going to shoot up right away. So if you don’t get in on the IPO, you haven’t really missed anything.
Brent: Josh, what do you think makes this IPO so popular?
Joshua: I think just the glamor of it. So many people, we’ve talked about Airbnb on this podcast before, but know what Airbnb is, like the model, or use the service. I know I’m a user of Airbnb, and we talked about it multiple times on the podcast. So I think getting exposure to a service that’s very well known, very well publicized, and you could see the demand for it probably even going forward, is making it very, very attractive to the investors.
Brent: Yeah. There’s a couple of things that strikes me about this. It makes me feel like it’s a very trendy IPO. Because I think that when a lot of people hear Airbnb, and they see the model, they think to themselves almost, “Man, I wish I had bought two or three houses where I can rent out as an Airbnb.” So it gives them, even though they may not have that money to go out and buy a property that they could put on Airbnb, gives them that feeling that they’re invested in a company or model they believe in.
Joshua: Yeah, absolutely. Just even with friends conversations. “Oh, we should buy in X city, and rent it out as an Airbnb.” That’s a common, conversation nowadays. I think it’s just getting in on that exposure, or that glamor of not only being invested in real estate, or renting out the property in a service you probably have already used, or might use in the future. But fundamentally I think that Airbnb, there are some red flags that I’d have to probably agree with Matt. They’ve had some trouble, even on the security of the rental properties, and stuff like that. So there is fundamentally some things to definitely look out for with their Airbnb, but definitely has my interest. I can see why it is, we’ve talked about it on the podcast like I mentioned before. Definitely has that something I’m going to be looking at.
Brent: Yeah. I think what’s always interesting is, many people think they get it at the IPO price before it hits the market, which they don’t actually get it. They get it once they hit the market, and that’s generally two different prices. But, I think a lot of people think they’re going to get it for this big value price, that really they can’t even buy it at that time at that level.
Matthew: Sure. Never going to happen, that’s the only for the early investors.
Brent: Despite being in a recession, the stock market is almost near all time highs. Why is the stock market going higher?
Matthew: Crazy, huh? This insane. It’s been a really good run-up since the March lows, I believe it’s better than March 23rd, when the soft market made it slow. I think there’s a couple of reasons though. So there’s two types of stimulus, fiscal and monetary. Fiscal definitely helped, it got some good earnings for some retail companies, as people start spending again. But monetary stimulus, is when the federal reserve starts injecting money in the markets. And they injected a ton of money into the bond market, in the early spring. And to give you an idea, in between the time period of 2008 to 2013, they injected as much as they did, during the spring of 2020. So they did some monetary stimulus that was, basically on steroids. So that’s a really good reason why. And then, look at interest rates. Interest rates are super low right now. No one’s earning anything on savings accounts. Bonds are paying one, two 3%. So stocks look pretty attractive.
Joshua: I that also we have to remember how the stock market’s valued, which is based off of, forecast of the future. It’s discounting, future cash flows of businesses. It’s not continuously looking in the past. So, looking to the past bad news, and anticipating better conditions going forward. So in the next scene or 12 months, 18 months from now, that’s being priced into the market, guiding it forward. And then I also think that the good fortunes of the big tech companies. These big tech companies are making record profits, and growing ,and they’re driving a lot of this growth. So the combination of those two, and what you said as well, Matt is all helping the stock market move forward.
Brent: Yeah. I think another thing that’s interesting too, is like Matthew said as well is, where are people are going to put money where they want to get some type of returns. Even if you said that you had 300, 400, $500,000 sitting in cash that you wanted to buy a rental home, I think pretty much, most every State, is not evicting people who aren’t paying rent. So essentially you could buy a rental property, get a renter in there, and the renter doesn’t even really have to pay rent, because there’re no evictions. So literally you could have a rental property with somebody in there for probably what another six months, eight months or a year, not paying any rent. That’s not a guaranteed investment either. It doesn’t seem like there’s very many valuable places to put your money right now.
Matthew: No, there’s not.
Brent: All right. Well, lets get into the Retirement Planning Corner. Our topic today is, will the stock market crash before the election. And what prompted this topic, is a couple of different things. I think it’s a very heated, and emotional election for obvious reasons right now. And a lot of people have strong feelings already going into election year, on what the response of the market will be. But this just seems to bring out so much more of that, with the emotion that’s happening right now.
Brent: We’re already starting to see a lot of, people predicting whether or not, if Biden wins, if that will have an impact on the stock market. If Trump continues on, what that impact may be. And you start to see a lot of conservatives start to say, well, “If Biden wins, I want to start getting out of the market already.” A lot of people really have a feeling about this. And there’s a lot of articles already starting to be written about, what people are predicting in terms of, if there is a change from Trump to Biden, and how that might impact it. Matthew, what is the market going to do? And what is your thoughts on this election?
Matthew: Well, unfortunately I can’t predict the future. I wish I could because I’m to be able to tell everybody either to buy more, or get out. But since I can’t predict the future, all we can do is, use what we know. And right now we know the economy’s recovering. I understand why people are nervous, because maybe they don’t like Biden, or maybe they don’t like Trump. But one thing I’ll point out is, during the ’16 election, Hillary Clinton’s campaign. They say, “Donald Trump gets elected, the stock market’s going to crash.” Well, Donald Trump got elected, and the stock market crashed this March finally. So that was what, three and a half years it took. So sure they were right, but it took three and a half years. And right now Trump’s campaign is saying, “Well, if Biden gets elected, the stock market’s going to crash.” And all it is, is it’s a campaign strategy. You got to remember both these two people are trying to get elected, and it’s nothing more than, essentially hearsay.
Brent: Josh, what’s your thoughts?
Joshua: Yeah. It’s just so uncertain. And I know we’re going to get into, some of the data behind market returns in election years. But this is a very, very popular topic right now. Again, just with clients, friends, and family about elections. But to try to predict, and then, if you do feel strongly one way or the other, about who’s going to be nominated and then, elected and then what the market’s going to do after that. Then that’s going to cause for you to take an action. If you feel that strongly about the short term fluctuation. So, then you have to ask yourself, what is that next option? And, that becomes very tricky because you’re an investor, of what to do with all of this money you’ve accumulated. So I think that rightfully so, it’s a very popular topic now, and I’m glad we’re going to dig into it further.
Brent: So Dimensional Fund Advisors is an investment company, and they did research on this exact topic, and they started to lay out their returns during a presidential election year. And here’s some of the facts behind it. Over the last 12 elections, which really goes back to 1972, only three times has the market finished down. And only one of those times, was it really that significant. That year was 2008. And really obviously, the crash of ’08 had nothing to do with Obama being elected. It was the mortgage backed securities, that basically crashed the market. But then more importantly, only three times did it finish down the following year, since 1972. And only one of those was of any significance, that year was 2001. Why was that? 9/11. So really when you start to look at the impacts that have happened in election years, or years following election years, it’s been almost some type of crisis that’s happened in the world, the country, that had really had nothing to do with who was elected president.
Matthew: Those are some great points Brent. And I would say that the market is more likely to go down because of COVID, or the COVID recession, than it is whose president. And, looking at the data, what Dimensional Fund Advisors has found, is that, like you said, it doesn’t really matter whose president. And, Republican, Democrat, stock market returns are always pretty good. I’ll roll of a few that I see that really stick out to me. George W. Bush was a really, really famous president, awful for the stock market. Lots of people loved him, but he had negative returns on both his two presidential cycles.
Brent: Correct. But you could argue that both of those weren’t really his fault. That you had 9/11, and you had the 2008 crash, unless you say that 2008 and crash’s partially his fault. His was a matter of circumstance and timing alone. He didn’t really cause the 9/11 issue.
Matthew: Potentially. But, he’s the only president since 19, essentially since world war two, that had negative stock returns.
Joshua: I think that, that’s more eyeopening. You’re saying that’s the only president that had negative stock turns in there. So when I see it, I’m looking at the chart that you’re reading off of about, which president was in office, and relating it to their rate of return during their term. There’s no pattern. And for the most part, it goes up. We’re looking at the data to try to find a pattern for an explanation, to take action in November, but there is no pattern. So I think that’s what’s the most eyeopening to me is that, the data isn’t really pointing you one way or the other, Democrat or Republican.
Matthew: Let’s go through the nineties. Because it’s the most recent. So let’s start with Clinton. The returns during Clinton’s first election period, were 17% per year. The next one, it was again, 17%. Then Bush we’ve talked about was negative, for his eight years in office. Then Obama was positive 14%. And then again, another 14% for his next term. And then lastly, so far Trump’s been positive 15%. So it really doesn’t matter who’s in office, Democrat, Republican. The market does pretty well, as long as the economy is doing well, stocks are going to do well, and you’re going to make money if you’re investing in stocks.
Brent: Yeah. So if, if you’re looking at your retirement assets, or you’re looking at your investments, you should be looking at these as longterm investments regardless. So if you think that one year or one period in time, which is the time that someone is elected, to what happens over the next six months, is going to have that much impact, really the data suggests that it’s not. But even if it did, when you look at the historical returns of how much they’ve made during the time that they’ve been in office for four years, or eight years, the numbers are astronomical, that it just means to stay in the market.
Joshua: And especially, looking as a longterm investor, you’re talking about a presidential term of four years. So then we just have to really ask ourselves, what is your time horizon as an investor. If you don’t have four years to be invested, then that’s a different question than who’s going to be president, or not. But I think it’s just confirming what you just said is, time horizon, and we’re in this for the long run. It is very important when looking at, election years.
Brent: And Matt, what’s your thought on the philosophy that some people have of, “Well, I’m going to get out right now, and wait and see what happens until the election happens. And then, if everything’s fine, I’ll get back in, in December, or January. If it feels like, the market is in a position that I’m comfortable with”?
Matthew: It doesn’t work. It’s so hard to predict the future. Find whatever your favorite hobby is, you’re a golf fan, you’re a sports fan. Try and predict the outcome of the game based on a point spread, it’s really hard. That’s what you’re doing when you’re trying to pull your money out of the stock market. It’s either going to go up or down. It’s a 50% probability. It’s actually a little bit more skewed, 80% of the time stocks go up. So again, you have the probability against you, if you’re pulling out of the market. Which is not something that I would do is somebody who, enjoys gambling on sports here and there, and is a big time investor. Use the probability to your advantage, and the probability says 80% of the time stocks go higher.
Brent: And if that’s what the data suggest, and people know it, because there’re other factors, that are involved in that, besides just those. You could be an investor that has a fair amount of money, that’s after tax money, that’s been in the market for the last several years, that you have a lot of gains that are sitting there in your account. You go to trigger sell on those positions. Now you’re paying capital gains tax on those positions, or you’re paying taxes on them if you, haven’t held them for a year. You say you pay a bunch of tax on it, you’re hoping you are going to be right. There’s an 80% chance saying that you’re not. But you’re hoping you are going to be right. You pay the tax, if you’re not right, you’re paying still the taxes. So when do you get back in then?
Matthew: Absolutely. And the whole thing about taxes is silly. This is like a PSA. People are saying, “Oh, Biden’s going to raise taxes.” Well, I got news for you, taxes are going to raise no matter what. Unless they pass the law of sunset, the Trump tax cuts. Which are probably going to be unlikely, if the house and the Senate are both blue. So when is that, is that 2025 when his tax cuts expire?
Brent: I thought it was 2026, but it’s right. ’25 or ’26.
Matthew: Yeah. Taxes are going higher. No matter what people, this is a temporary tax cut.
Brent: And so do you, is the thought that the tax cut would go away immediately, or taxes would get raised immediately, if Biden was to win?
Matthew: He has no incentive to do that. He would actually have an incentive to extend the Trump tax cuts.
Joshua: But that can’t be the only fear. Because then that’s another uncertainty. Yes, we know that, that’s going to expire, but it is an uncertainty of whether it’s going to get extended, how gradually it will increase. We don’t know that. So we’re trying to solve for something, that we don’t know the answer to. Focusing things that we can control, is probably more important. And then to go back to what you were saying about selling in November, even getting back in December, is that a foregone conclusion? When do you get back in the market? I know we’ve talked about this in the past, that we have to be right twice. So even if you’re right, and you saw right before the election and the market crashes, and you miss the recovery, like we’ve just seen with coronavirus, you could miss out on great rates of return. We know there’s a difference, if you missed great days in the market of rates of return, versus you just staying in the market, through that whole period. By holding, and being that disciplined longterm investor.
Brent: I don’t know if you remember on election night, the night Trump was elected. That whole night the aftermarket was just tanking. I think it was down what, 1,000 points.
Joshua: Oh, I remember that.
Matthew: Yeah I remember.
Brent: And then by the time the market opened in the morning, it was going up. So everybody was panicking, and then next thing you know it’s settled off, and we could see what happened over the last three and a half years. It’s been pretty consistent returns with a small little blip in 2018.
Matthew: Yeah. I think it’s safe to say that one, we can’t predict where the stock market’s going. It’s very difficult. Like Josh says you’ve got to be right twice. And number two, I think we could safely predict that it doesn’t matter who the president is, it’s not going to cost stocks to crash. The stocks crash, it’s going to be because of something else.
Brent: I agree. And you have to, you have to see through it. You have to see beyond it. You’ve got to look at a time horizon, that’s much further than what’s going to happen over the next six months.
Joshua: I agree. And I think one of the data pieces from this study was, the average return during an election year is 11.3%. So even in that year leading up on average, or in the year that we’re going into the election, it’s still over 10% rate of return. That’s one number that in this study stood out to me. They’re still very good rates, I’m sure out there.
Brent: Are either of you making any changes or transactions in your portfolio leading up to the election?
Matthew: No. I mean, the only thing I’d do is if a company needed some extra capital, I’d potentially move something around in my portfolio, if I find a better investment to invest my money into, but no I’m not selling. Absolutely not.
Joshua: Yeah. Again, if there’s opportunity, yes. But no plans to sell because of an election. No, my portfolio is built for the future. And so it’s going to sustain through any period. And of course I’m always open to opportunity. Like I think Matt was just saying. But no schedule, or no plans to make any changes going into November.
Brent: I’m not looking to sell any either. I wouldn’t do that. I like buying and holding, I don’t like overtrading. I like having positions longterm. I’m just not a reactive person who wants to look at it every day, and make changes just because we think we might get a political change. If anything, it’s probably going to be short lived. The data suggests at all. If you look at the historical data, that’s the most powerful thing. If the data suggests that, the chance of the market going down is, going to be of something that we can’t predict, a crisis that we can’t predict. 9/11, a pandemic, the 2008 crash. Chances are you shouldn’t be overreacting to something like this.
Brent: Any other thoughts on this topic guys?
Matthew: No. My last thought is when you look at presidential cycles, they usually last eight years. So that probably puts a little favor into Trump’s camp, most likely. To get reelected. I’m looking at these graphs and I don’t see at any time, going back to the 1929, there was a Republican president for only one year, or one cycle. Other people will think, “Hey, Trump might not get elected, stocks are going to fall up.” I’d say you probably will.
Brent: Can we put some of these slides in the show notes?
Matthew: Yeah, we can. I think what I’m going to do, is I’m going to do a blog post, to go over this, and I’m going to have all these slides in there.
Brent: Perfect. I think that’s great, because then people can actually see a visual of some of these slides, and I think they’re extremely powerful and helpful.
Matthew: Yeah. I agree.
Brent: Any parting thoughts for this topic, Josh?
Joshua: No, I just lean back on didn’t really see any pattern. So, to try to forecast is really difficult going into this election. And the stock market, like I talked about earlier, when we’re saying why it’s going up, is it prices in a lot of the future information. So again, just really, really hard to predict any of that, stick to your plan. If you’re a longterm investor, hold on to that discipline through these times, because we saw that more likely than not, the stock market’s going to keep going up.
Matthew: I have one last thing to say, I was wrong. I was looking at the end of the data. I now found Jimmy Carter, was a one cycle term president. And I know he was a very controversial president, similar to Trump. And after that, the economy really boomed, really took off. So, keep that in your back pocket. Maybe that’s what happens here, if Trump doesn’t get elected.
Brent: Yeah, I agree. It’s an emotional election for everybody. I think everyone has very strong feelings, one way or the other. I think just hold on tight. Data supports sitting just the way you are. Don’t be over reactionary, and just sit with your portfolio the way it is. If you’re going to make a change, make a change for a long term, not because the election is going to happen.
Joshua: That’s a great plan.
Brent: All right, let’s get into one of our favorite parts of the show. RPA Recommends. I’ll start with you Joshua. What do you have on deck for a recommended day?
Joshua: Quick story. So right after I proposed to my fiance, who’s now my wife, we took a trip to New York. And Matt gave us a recommendation to eat at a place called Pizza Loves Emily. And I saw an ad online. So we ate there, it was delicious, we loved it. My wife loved their pizza. I saw an ad online to order their pizza, directly to my house. So from New York, they ship it over to you in California. You reheat it. I think it’s like halfway cooked, and it’s through a service called Goldbelly.
Joshua: And so it was really cool. I went on their site, I was able to order it, it was delivered, it was delicious. And they also have other famous restaurants throughout the country, that you can ship they’re famous dishes. If it’s a burger or, all different kinds of stuff from all over the nation. So just a really, really cool service, luxury item for us. So obviously not going to do that all the time. But it was really, really cool to have, one of her favorite pizzas shipped from New York, to the LA area. Getting to heat that up and it tasting, almost just exactly the way it was. Brought back some good memories of our trip, and Goldbelly. That’s my recommendation for today.
Brent: I think it’s neat. The food options nowadays, it’s like the virus has opened up a lot of options with food, because you don’t have to go to a restaurant, you can have it delivered in. There’s just so many ways that you can get food nowadays.
Joshua: Yeah. And it is really, really cool. And all the sauces came individually on the side. So it didn’t soak in. So we got to dress it up once it was cooked. So it was just really, really cool. It came in a big freezer bag in a box, and delicious.
Brent: Pretty neat. Matt what do you recommend today?
Matthew: The last two shows, we’ve been talking a little about the stock market, common stock investing. I’m going to recommend a tool that we use on our side, that individuals also have access to. If you are a do it yourself investor, check out the Wise Charts, to do your stock research. They have plans that are for, institutional clients like ourselves. But then they also have some pricing plans, for individual investors, where you could get some really cool stock tips, to help you pick winning stocks.
Brent: That’s great. That’s that’s a neat one, I think that’s one that’s helpful. I think I’m going to stick with something similar where, it can be helpful for people on the financial topic. I’m going to recommend people to use mint.com. It’s something I don’t think I’ve ever recommended on the show. But it’s a way for people to manage their income, expenses, how much they’re spending on a monthly basis, you can sync up your accounts, your bank accounts, your credit cards. And it will tell you every month what you have, coming in as income. What your cashflow is, what your expenses are, and how much you potentially can be saving every month. And it will show you what you’ve been doing in the past, and what you’ve been doing projecting forward. It’s a free app that you can use, you just go to mint.com.
Brent: It’s an introductory way, to being able to do things without having to use QuickBooks or Intuit, or Quicken to try and manage all of your expenses yourself, and categorize, and put them all in. So I think it would be a great one, to use for a budgeting software. I may have used it in the past, but I can’t remember. I don’t think so.
Joshua: I don’t think you have, so good one.
Brent: Any other thoughts guys on the show?
Matthew: No, it’s September, so enjoy football season, while it’s here.
Brent: And hopefully we get some cooler weather soon. Thank you for listening to the Retirement Plan Playbook. Please give us a review on, wherever you get and stream your podcast. If you’d like to learn more about us, go to our show notes. You can go to Retirement Plan Playbook. Be on the lookout for Matthew’s blog, which will get posted with some of those charts. Thanks for listening.
Joshua: Thanks guys.
Matthew: Thank you.
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